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Book Store Statistics – Part 3

Today we’ll match up Census Bureau statistics on the U.S. retail book industry with the sales reported by the top three booksellers—Barnes & Noble, Amazon, and Borders—in their respective Annual Reports.

Top Bookseller Stats

In order to try and capture the rising importance of eBooks in the overall book selling business, we have used Census Bureau data on the Retail Book Store industry and combined it with the book portion of the Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order House industry. Census data is not broken out by product except in Census years and therefore we extrapolated the book portion of the Electronic Shopping industry for non census years based on their percentage of the industry in census years. These extrapolations are shown in detail in the table at the bottom of this post.

We thought it was particularly interesting that the top three booksellers, together, grew to represent 55% of book sales in the United States in 2008, up from 46% of the market in 2001. Thus, all other booksellers have seen their combined market share fall to 45%.

The experience of each of the top three booksellers between 2001 and 2008 has, of course, differed greatly. While Barnes & Noble’s market share has held steady at approximately 20% from 2001 to 2008, Borders saw its share shrink from 16.7% to 12.6%. Over the same period, Amazon has more than doubled its market share, from 9.6% in 2001 to 21.7% in 2008.

Here are the detailed figures used in the graph above:

Top Bookseller Stat Table

Note on age of data.

In a day and age when we are all quite accustomed to being able to get almost instant satisfaction to any question we may have—just check the global brain, the Internet—it is understandable that many people find it very hard to appreciate that when it comes to national economic statistics, real data takes several years to collect and compile. Thus, in this world, 2008 data is, actually, quite current. During 2010, the 2009 data are being collected from thousands of entities, compiled, standardized and checked. They’ll be reported on, at the earliest, in December 2010 and more likely in early 2011. Educated guesses on what happened in 2009, based on surveys, for example, can, of course, be made. But, do not mistake those guesses with actual census data! Patience… the picture will become clearer in time.

Source Note:

2002 Census data:
here

2007 Census data:
here

Annual Retail Sales data 1992 – 2008
here

Barnes & Noble Annual Reports:
here

Borders Annual Reports:
here

Amazon Annual Reports:
here

Book Store Statistics – Part 2

We pick up again on the topic we started way back on June 30, namely, how are books sold these days? In our first look at the economic statistics available on U.S. book stores we saw three very interesting things.

1. That while book store sales between 1997 and 2007 rose by 35.4% the sale of actual books rose by far less (25.1%).

2. That sales of things other than books grew fastest, increasing 71.7% between 1997 and 2007.

3. That within the book category, textbooks by far outpaced all other books in terms of dollar sales growth, in fact, text book sales grew by 123.2% while the sale of all non textbook books actually declined by 0.9%.

Now, because these data do not include coverage of eBooks, we decided to try and look into those as well. What we found is that they are still very, very hard to track through any reliable, national level statistics, yet. The U.S. Census Bureau has begun to track eBooks but it will take a few years before their survey data provides us with the sort of detail we need in order to make sense of this crazy time of transition.

In the meantime, we can take a look at books sold electronically and add those to the overall sale of books through book stores.

Book Sales by Outlet

Books have long been sold by book stores as well as outlets other than book stores, like catalog companies, book clubs and since the mid-1990 electronically through the Internet. The bar chart above shows the dollar value of books sold through book stores (including text books) and books sold electronically and through mail order houses. The U.S. Census Bureau has been tracking retail sales through these different outlets for some time now. What is not clear yet is how much of the eBook market is being captured by these Census Bureau categories. We suspect that it does not yet capture eBook sales reliably.

Nonetheless, what is abundantly clear from these data already—and is hardly surprising to anyone following this subject—is the fact that more and more of the books we buy we are buying electronically, online.

Worth noting is the fact that some of the electronic sales measured in the data graphed here are, in fact, electronic sales made by companies that also operate physical book stores. The gorilla in the market is, however, Amazon which has overtaken Barnes & Noble to become the largest book retailer in the United States. This occurred in each company’s fiscal 2009 when Amazon had net, North American “media” sales of $5.96 billion and Barnes & Noble’s sales totaled $5.12 billon (figures come from each company’s SEC filing for 2009).

Perhaps we should try charting some of these corporate sales figures against some of the Census data in our next post.

Source Note:

1997 Census Data here

2002 Census Data here

2007 Census Data here

Turbulence Continues in Publishing World

Troubled Skies Above

While we have been busy with our reference publishing work recently—and in all honestly, taking some time for summer fun as well—we’ve also kept an eye on the publishing business. The skies over that business seem turbulent to say the least.

While publishers struggle to figure out how to make their old contracts cover new eBook editions the Connecticut Attorney General announces that he is looking into the distribution agreements reached between Amazon and publishers, and Apple and publishers, because of their potentially anticompetitive impact on the market. Meanwhile the onslaught of ever newer and less expensive eReaders continues apace and rumors swirl about Barns & Noble exploring strategic alternatives that may include selling or going private. Indeed these are interesting times in the publishing world.

There will clearly be plenty to sort out when we do finish up this little hiatus and get back to our study of the publishing business through a careful look at industry statistics.

In hopes that you are having a wonderful summer with plenty of time for summer reading, we’ll close and promise to return with more interesting statistics very soon. 

Bookseller, Publisher, and the Blurring Line Between

We’re still working on getting some figures together with which we’ll continue out look into the book publishing industry through an analysis of economic statistics. In fact, we have some stunning stats on numbers of new titles published annually from Bowker. The problem is they are so stunning that we’re trying to get confirmation that we are reading them accurately before we post a blog entry on the subject. It’s sort of hard to believe that in 2009 there were 300% more new titles published than were published just seven years earlier…

Book Publishing Industry Statistics – Part 4 will appear once we’re sure we have the numbers straight.

In the meantime, a quick note about Barnes & Noble’s newly announced service to help authors self publish their works in eBook format. Here is a link to their announcement of the service which is scheduled to be launched this summer. In essence, B&N is planning to offer authors a web site through which they can (1) submit manuscripts for conversion to an eBook format, (2) offer the resulting eBooks for sale, and (3) help in selling those offerings. We give a nod to The Writer’s Spot blog which is where we first heard about the new B&N endeavor.

This move into vanity publishing by Barnes & Noble appears to be another step in the blurring of the lines between booksellers and book publishers. B&N has been publishing its own line of books for some time now so this expansion into vanity publishing is not an entirely new move for them. It is, we think, simply their way of trying to adapt to a world in flux. Plus, with an eReader of their own to promote, the Nook, helping to get more “content” onto the device is logical.

What we found interesting in reading this news from B&N is the fact that it is part of a larger restructuring in the wholesale and retail sectors generally. Those in the publishing sector are very focused on their own industry and may not be aware of just how pervasive the restructuring of all distribution networks has been since we entered the twenty-first century. Most supply chains and distribution networks have been greatly impacted over the last decade by advances in communications. The Internet and low cost computing power have totally altered how we buy and sell thing, how we get them to market. Old divisions between manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers are blurring and not just in the publishing sector.

In some networks—think of Wal-Mart—wholesalers are being squeezed out as large retailers are going directly to the manufacturer. In others, the retail landscape is changing dramatically as incomes drop for many on the lower rungs of society, and such people—joined by a financially-squeezed middle class—turn more and more often to big box stores and large discount retailers. Trying to survive as a small, independent retailer in the shadow of these giants is getting harder.

Back to books. According to the American Booksellers Association there were 3,250 independent booksellers in the United States in 1999. By 2010 that number had fallen to less than half (1,400).

Retailing Books: A Brief Look

The recent news story on the resignation of Ron Marshall, CEO of the Borders Group (the NYT story is here), suggests that this major retailer had and still is having troubles. Marshall, who just arrived at Borders a year ago, did what turn-around experts do best. He cut costs and eliminated many of the smaller and less profitable Borders outlets. Evidently not enough.

How big is book retailing? Manufacturing and Distribution USA (one of our books) tells us that the industry (technically NAICS 451211 – Book Stores) had nearly 10,600 establishments in 2009, sold $19.9 billion in merchandise (not all of that books), about $1.8 million per establishment. This sector also employed nearly 162,000 people. Establishment counts are down from 11,700 in 1990 but employment is up from the 86,000 in that year—suggesting that in this period stores have become bigger. Ron Marshall was just following a trend. This period also saw the rise, from a flat horizon, of a giant, Amazon.com. Amazon’s sales (per its most recent 10K filing with the SEC) had net sales in 2009 of $24.5 billion—up from $8.5 billion in 2005: that’s growth, folks). Borders Group? $2.63 billion, up from $2.59 billion in 2005. Barnes & Noble? $4.53 billion (2008), up from $4.12 billion (2004). There are also other smaller chains.

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